Residents of Los Angeles should prepare themselves. A national team of scientists led by NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California reported on their findings last October 7th a 99.9 % chance that a 5.0 magnitude earth quake will hit Los Angeles, California within the next three years.
The prediction is based on a study of the La Habra earthquake that disturbed the northeastern region of Los Angeles last year. The 5.1 magnitude earth quake damaged a dozen water mains and a gas line, and caused an extensive destruction on infrastructures all over Orange County which cost about $12 million for repairs. Estimated $300 million had been used to fix ruin from the 6.1 magnitude earthquake that shook near Napa, California in 2015 which killed one person and left 200 people injured.
Since the disturbance from the 2014 earthquake, the team had been checking the rock surrounding the area. Their investigation led to discovery of deformed Earth's crust over the northern Los Angeles Basin and northern Orange County.Andrea Donnellan, geophysicist, led the team to calculate the surface changes in Earth's crust using GPS. Donnellan described how some of the upper sediments in the LA basin moved and released some stress in the fault system.
According to the authors of Earth and Space Science, the paper published by Jet Propulsion Laboratory scientists in Pasadena, movements on the earth's surface can be used to predict the activities of faults below its surface. Researchers discovered many of the deformation were shallow therefore concluded that deeper pressure remained to explode. The team anticipated that the fault will release the stress again, resulting to a 5.0 magnitude earthquake within the next 3 years.
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) however disagreed on NASA's prediction. The USGS' own seismic hazard map showed an 85% probability of an occurrence of an earthquake within 3 years. The USGS hazard assessment is then used in emergency planning by some of government agencies concerned.
Thomas Heaton, professor of engineering seismology and director of the Earthquake Engineering Research Laboratory at Caltech stated, "As far as I'm concerned there has never been a successful earthquake prediction and a scientific breakthrough would be required for us to make a scientifically based prediction," ,distinctly because earth quakes are difficult to predict.
Lucy Jones, USGS seismologist stated how one paper shouldn't create panic. However, she agreed that the best this that California residents can do is to be prepared.
