El Niño Forecast 2014 - El Niño is a warming phase that happens in the Pacific Ocean and in combination with atmosphere shifts, it tends to bring more rain. So, it's waited for with anxiety. Is there a chance that it could not happen this year?
The associations in charge to give El Niño Forecast of 2014 are the NOAA (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) and the CPC (Climate Prediction Center). On Oct. 9, they have already given the report and new ideas have arisen.
"Most models predict El Niño to develop during October-December 2014 and to continue into early 2015. The consensus of forecasters indicates a 2-in-3 chance of El Niño, during the November 2014- January2015 season."
From this prediction, the state of California is particularly worried. There has been a particularly severe drought and already in January, Gov. Brown has declared a drought state of Emergency.
According to the LA Times, El Niño does not look promising at all. Apparently, even if it does occur, it still wouldn't be enough to end the drought. More than 20 inches of rainfall would be needed and that will likely not happen.
And William Patzert, a climatologist from La Cañada Flintridge in California has given his opinion on the forecasts and it's not a positive one at all.
"This (NOAA) forecast banks on an El Niño that would influence precipitation patterns; they're saying the odds are two in three. I'd say that's extremely optimistic and delusional."
El Niño is called like that due to the fact that fishermen from South America noticed the oddly warmer water in the sea and the phenomenon tends to happen around Christmas, so "El Niño" is a referral to baby Jesus.
El Niño, as it was just stated, is a phenomenon and as such, not everything that is predicted could occur that way. So maybe, and hopefully, it will occur and the precipitations will help the states in need.
